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Paternity Cases

 

Scenario : Alleged father matches at all markers but the statistics are too low

When the alleged father and child match at all markers the probability of paternity is calculated. This probability determines if the match is due to the man being the biological father or if he simply matches by chance. Typically, the statistics with the 16 marker test are very strong and the probability of paternity is 99.99%. In some cases, the probability is too low to be conclusive and the report is a "maybe" answer. This happens because the shared DNA types between the alleged father and child are also DNA types that are common in the population. When you have too many common DNA types it drives the statistics down. The lower the number of markers used, the more likely it is that you can match at all the markers and be inconclusive. You can eliminate this possibility by testing more markers. 

Case 1

An alleged father and child were tested at 16 markers and found to match at all 16. The statistics were too low to be conclusive and we asked for the mother’s sample to resolve the case. The mother was unavailable for testing. After testing 41 markers, the alleged father and child still matched at all the markers and the statistics were extremely high (99.99%).

CASE 1TestedMatchedProbability
16 Markers AF • C 16 of 16 Inconclusive
41 Markers AF • C 41 of 41 99.99%
 

Case 2

In a similar case, an alleged father and child matched at 16 of 16 markers and the statistics weren’t high enough to be conclusive. After testing 41 markers, they matched at 41 out of 41 and the statistics were extremely high (99.99%).

CASE 2TestedMatchedProbability
16 Markers AF • C 16 of 16 Inconclusive
41 Markers AF • C 41 of 41 99.99%

Scenario 2: Alleged father matches at all but one marker

An alleged father and child can share a matching DNA type at all but one marker and still be related biologically as father and child. This typically happens when the father passes on a mutation. We all pass on mutations to our children. The markers tested for paternity are not related to any health condition or disease. The probability of paternity can be driven down to the point where it is inconclusive when a single mismatch occurs. Thankfully, mutations in family relationship testing are rare but they happen often enough that new DNA tests using additional markers is necessary.

Case 1

An alleged father and child matched at all but one marker with the standard 16 marker test. The mother was not tested. Due to the possible mutation, the probability of paternity was too low to be conclusive (94.70%). The probability of paternity must be above 99.00% to be conclusive in a paternity case. After testing 41 markers, it was found that the alleged father and child matched at 40 out of 41 markers and the probability of paternity was 99.99%.

CASE 1TestedMatchedProbability
16 Markers AF • C 15 of 16 94.70%
41 Markers AF • C 40 of 41 99.99%
 

Case 2

Once again, an alleged father and child matched at 15 of 16 markers. Due to the possible mutation, the probability of paternity was too low to be conclusive (66.43%). After testing 41 markers, it was found that the alleged father and child matched at 40 out of 41 markers and the probability of paternity was 99.99%.

CASE 2TestedMatchedProbability
16 Markers AF • C 15 of 16 66.43%
41 Markers AF • C 40 of 41 99.99%
 

Case 3

In this case, the alleged father and child matched at 15 of 16 markers and produced a probability of paternity of 89.92% (too low to be conclusive). We were able to get a sample from the mother and added her data to the 16 marker results. The probability improved to 99.95% and a report was generated with conclusive results. For comparison we tested the alleged father and child with the 41 marker test without using the mother's DNA. We found the probability without the mother using the 41 marker test to be 99.99%, higher than the 16 marker test with the mother included.

CASE 3TestedMatchedProbability
16 Markers AF • C 15 of 16 89.92%
16 Markers AF • M • C 15 of 16 99.95%
41 Markers AF • C 40 of 41 99.99%
 

Scenario 3: Alleged father matches at all but two markers

An alleged father and child can share matching DNA at all but two markers and still be related biologically as father and child. This is typically caused by the father passing on a mutation to the child at the two markers. When matching at all but two, the report is written as inconclusive and there are two options for resolving the case. The first option is to test the mother, if available. The second option is to test more markers. Once again, mutations in family relationship testing are rare but they happen often enough to warrant developing a DNA test with more markers.
 

Case 1

An alleged father and child were found to match at 15 of 16 markers but the statistics were too low to be conclusive. We asked for the mother's sample to help resolve the case and applied her DNA to the calculation. Since the mother donated half of the child's DNA, we were able to eliminated the DNA type in the child where she matched and use the remaining father's contribution to the child to compare against the alleged father. We found that the man now matched at 14 of 16 markers and the statistics were still too low to be conclusive. After testing the mother, child and alleged father at 41 markers, we found that the alleged father matched the biological father's contribution to the child at 39 out of 41 markers. The probability of paternity was found to be 99.99%. Incidentally, we also calculated the probability of paternity using the 41 marker test without the mother's profile and also found it to be 99.99%.

CASE 1TestedMatchedProbability
16 Markers AF • C 15 of 16 Inconclusive
16 Markers AF • M • C 14 of 16 Inconclusive
41 Markers AF • C 40 of 41 99.99%
41 Markers AF • M • C 39 of 41 99.99%
 

Case 2

An alleged father and child were found to match at 14 of 16 markers but the mother was deceased and could not be tested. The report would have remained inconclusive without the ability to test more markers. In other words, these two individuals would have no closure about their relationship even though they paid for a DNA test. Upon testing 41 markers, it was found they only matched at 28 out of 41 markers and the man was excluded as the father.

CASE 2TestedMatchedProbability
16 Markers AF • C 14 of 16 Inconclusive
41 Markers AF • C 28 of 41 Not Father